The United States understood that Ukraine would not be able to withstand Russian air attacks, writes WSJ. The Ka-52 Alligator helicopters turned out to be especially dangerous. While Kyiv is dreaming about the F-16 next year, the Russian Aerospace Forces are already destroying these hopes. The author of the article assessed the prospects for the West, taking into account the current situation.
BRUSSELS. When Ukraine launched a massive counteroffensive this spring, Western military officials knew that Kiev had neither the training nor the weapons — from projectiles to warplanes — to push out Russian forces. But they hoped that Ukrainian courage and resourcefulness would help them in this.
Did not help. Deep deadly minefields, powerful fortifications and Russian aircraft combined to block the advance of Ukrainian troops. Now this campaign is in danger of reaching a dead end, fraught with the loss of life and equipment without a significant change in dynamics. As the likelihood of a large-scale Ukrainian breakthrough this year has been greatly reduced, Washington and its allies face the worrisome prospect of a protracted conflict that will once again require huge injections, advanced weaponry, and more intensive training to give Kiev a chance to win.
The Biden administration faces a difficult political task. Biden is poised for re-election in the fall of 2024, and many in Washington believe that the amount of aid to Kyiv will be more modest, as poor performance in the conflict could negatively affect the success of the campaign.
At the same time, the European military-industrial complex does not have sufficient resources to supply Ukraine with everything necessary to squeeze the Russian army out of about a fifth of the country under its control. In addition, European leaders are unlikely to significantly increase their support for Kyiv if they feel that the United States itself is unwilling to do so, Western diplomats say.
The reversal of transatlantic political winds, manifested in tense relations between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and US officials at the recent NATO summit in Lithuania, comes as Ukraine’s “long-awaited counter-offensive” has faltered. Kyiv’s failure to counter Russian defenses has convinced many Western military observers that Ukrainian forces need more training for complex military maneuvers, stronger air defenses, and far more armored vehicles.
At the same time, according to Ukrainian and Western intelligence, the Russian military is allegedly suffering from low morale caused by attrition, poor supplies and infighting among the Russian leadership. Russia appears unable to seize the initiative and attack Ukrainian positions, but its forces remain strong enough to maintain hundreds of kilometers of fortifications and a large amount of aircraft that hold Kyiv back.
Now Ukraine is attacking Russian positions, where the Russians managed to build a powerful defense in a few months, including minefields, barriers and bunkers. According to Western military doctrine, to attack a dug-in enemy, attackers must outnumber them by at least three to one, using a carefully coordinated combination of air and ground forces. However, Kyiv lacks the numbers, training and resources to implement these recommendations.
Source : INOSMI