Rosstat postponed the publication of statistics on Russia’s GDP for the fourth quarter of last year, which was supposed to take place a few days before President Vladimir Putin’s address to the Federal Assembly.
The data, which is traditionally published on Fridays, did not appear on the Rosstat website on February 17. As Bloomberg notes , Rosstat, without explaining the reasons, shifted the publication to Wednesday, February 22, the day after Putin’s speech.
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg predict a sharp acceleration in the economic downturn in October-December to 4.6% yoy, the worst since a recession during the pandemic.
In the third quarter, Russian GDP sank by 3.7%, in the second – by 4.1%. The final figure for the year has not yet been presented by official statistics. On December 29, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov estimated the fall in the economy at 2.7%, and Putin himself at a meeting on economic issues on January 17 said that the result was even better – minus 2.5%.
The apocalyptic forecasts of the first months of the war, which promised Russia the strongest economic decline since the 1990s, did not materialize. Oil companies managed to return production to almost pre-war levels (10.9 million barrels per day), while the industry as a whole, according to Rosstat, lost only 0.9% of output. The mobilization of defense factories, which in three shifts seven days a week collect tanks and shells for the army thrown to conquer Ukraine, has affected.
In 2023, the Ministry of Economic Development predicts a continued decline in GDP – by 0.9%. But economists do not share the optimism of officials: the World Bank expects a fall of 3.6%, Gazprombank – by 2.8-3.4%, experts from the RANEPA and the Gaidar Institute – by more than 5%, Alfa-Bank – by 6%.
The Russian economy, which Putin once demanded to be 5th in the world, will lose 8% of its pre-war growth trajectory by 2026, Bloomberg Economics predicts. In monetary terms, this is 190 billion dollars – an amount equal to the annual GDP of such countries as, for example, Romania.
Sanctions, the number of which Russia has become the world record holder, will continue to cloud the outlook for the economy for years to come. Reducing technology imports should not lead to a one-time collapse that would have taken place in the first year – it will “reduce the prospects for economic growth in the long term,” says Natalia Lavrova, chief economist at BCS.
Source : Moscow Times
