The longer Russia’s invasion drags on, the more obvious it becomes that the international powers involved are pursuing interests other than the protection of Ukraine. In the United States, for example, the upcoming Republican primaries are set to turn an international crisis into part of the American culture wars. Every contender for the GOP nomination will have to be extremely careful not to appear supportive of yet another foreign war after the painful memories of Iraq and Afghanistan.
Similar forces are at play within the EU. It has been an open secret since French President Emmanuel Macron’s visit to China earlier this year that Paris wants to increase its global influence, ideally through becoming the dominant nation within the EU. This role, traditionally played by Germany as the economically strongest and most populous member state, has come under significant pressure, and Macron seems determined to take advantage of the vacuum. Top of the agenda, currently, is Ukraine’s Nato ambitions.
When in 2008 Washington wanted to grant Ukraine a “membership action plan” to join Nato, it was blocked by Germany — and France — very much to the frustration of other Central European nations like Poland. Now Paris is changing its tune, and just a day ago Macron announced that there needs to be a “path towards membership”. This sudden position is, really, no more than a political calculation. France cannot dethrone Germany without support from Eastern Europe, and many there have not forgotten that Macron called Nato “brain-dead” in 2019. Nor will they have forgotten his multiple phone calls with Vladimir Putin, which caused widespread suspicion about the French commitment to Kyiv’s independence and a unified European position.
Source : Unherd